The PrimeFlow Desk · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Week Ahead
The Federal Reserve announces its next interest-rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 2:00 PM Eastern. The next morning, Thursday, October 29, brings the first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September’s PCE inflation report. In September the Fed raised rates by a quarter point, and this week decides whether that was the last hike of the year.
Where the market starts the week of October 26, 2026
- S&P 500: 7,623.68, down 0.5% for the week ended Friday, October 23
- Dow: 52,215.16, up 0.4% for the week
- Nasdaq: 25,955.34, down 0.7% for the week
- 10-year Treasury yield: 5.00%, down from 5.09% a week earlier
- Brent crude oil: $116.72 a barrel, up 6.2% for the week
The S&P 500 has lost two weeks running.
The Fed decision on October 28, 2026: what to expect
Almost everyone expects the Fed to hold its key rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday. Reuters asked 100 economists; 94 said hold. Futures put the odds of another hike near 1 in 10. The Fed raised the range by a quarter point on September 16 in a 12-0 vote. There are no new economic projections at this meeting, so the statement and the 2:30 PM press conference carry the message.
On Fed day the big move can come after 2:00 PM rather than at the open, which is why the clock matters as much as the decision. Our plain guide to the best time of day to trade stocks walks through how a session’s hours behave.
Why Thursday’s PCE and GDP reports may matter more
The harder test comes Thursday at 8:30 AM. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports September’s PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most. Forecasters expect prices up 3.6% over the past year, from 3.4%, with the core measure near 3.1%. The first estimate of third-quarter growth lands the same minute, with forecasts near 3%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter.
Hotter prices and a strong economy are the mix that keeps rates high. It holds the 10-year Treasury yield, the rate that steers mortgage costs, near 5%. It also sets what your savings account and CDs pay.
My view: I expect a hold, with the door left open for December. Pimco already expects a hike then. If Thursday’s inflation number prints 3.6% or hotter, I think the market starts agreeing, and that is this week’s real risk for stocks.
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Economic calendar this week: October 26-30, 2026 (ET)
- Tuesday, Oct 27, 8:30 AM: September durable goods orders
- Wednesday, Oct 28, 2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve’s rate decision; press conference at 2:30 PM
- Wednesday, Oct 28, after the close: Alphabet and Microsoft report quarterly results
- Thursday, Oct 29, 8:30 AM: third-quarter GDP (advance estimate) and September personal income and outlays, including PCE inflation
- Thursday, Oct 29, after the close: Amazon reports
- Friday, Oct 30, 8:30 AM: the third-quarter Employment Cost Index
From the trade log
The public log stands at 474 wins, 17 losses and 4 breakeven across 495 closed alerts, as of 25 October 2026. See every closed alert on the public log.
Be ready before the bell,
Christopher
Editor, PrimeFlow Trades
PrimeFlow Trades publishes market commentary and trade alerts for education. Nothing here is personal investment advice. Trading stocks involves risk, including the loss of money. Past results, including those on our public trade log, do not guarantee future results.
