The PrimeFlow Desk · Monday, October 26, 2026 · Market Brief
Oil prices eased early on Monday, October 26, 2026, even after a weekend of attacks on Saudi Arabia. On Saturday, strikes hit Riyadh’s main airport and oil sites in the kingdom. By Monday’s sunrise, Brent crude, the world’s benchmark, had slipped about 2% overnight to near $114.50 a barrel, and US stock futures were up about 0.3%.
Where the market closed on Friday, October 23, 2026
- S&P 500: 7,623.68, down 0.52%
- Dow: 52,215.16, down 1.23% (653 points)
- Nasdaq: 25,955.34, down 0.20%
- 10-year Treasury yield: 5.00%, up 0.04 point
- Brent crude oil: $116.72 a barrel, up 3.14%
- Gold: $4,007.90 an ounce, down 1.29%
Why oil fell after a weekend of attacks
Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday, its highest close in six months and up 6% on the week. Weekend attacks on oil sites usually lift prices further. Instead, Brent fell. Two things did it: word that mediators had flown to Tehran on Sunday to cool tensions, and traders cashing in after a big week.
Oil above $110 feeds straight into inflation, and this is the week inflation is on trial. The Fed announces its rate decision on Wednesday, October 28 at 2:00 PM Eastern, and on Thursday morning comes September’s PCE, the price gauge the Fed watches most.
My view: I wouldn’t read one quiet night as the end of it. The attacks haven’t stopped; traders have simply priced in some hope. I’d want to see Brent back under $110 before I believed the pressure on prices was easing.
A 6% week in oil with a Fed meeting right behind it is when a plan for the bad days earns its keep, and our plain guide to managing risk is written for weeks like this one.
What it means for you
Gasoline and heating oil follow crude with a delay, so Friday’s spike hasn’t fully reached the pump. And while oil stays this high, the 10-year Treasury yield, the rate that steers mortgage costs, has every reason to stay near 5%.
Monday’s oil move was over before the opening bell. The 40 Minutes That Matter is what our desk teaches every new trader first: a workshop and two one-page cheat sheets, The Level Map and The Session Clock, so you know which prices matter before the first trade of the day. It normally sells for $49. You can have it for one payment of $7.
See How Our Desk Reads the First Hour, $7 →
Also on the Desk
A hold is priced in. Futures put the odds that the Fed holds its key rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday near 9 in 10. Sunday’s Desk has every date that matters this week.
Big Tech lands on the same days. Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close on Wednesday, a few hours after the Fed. Amazon follows on Thursday.
Economic calendar for Monday, October 26, 2026 (Eastern time)
- Before the bell: Verizon reports third-quarter results
- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed national activity index, a broad read on September’s economy
- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed survey of Texas factories for October
- 1:00 PM: the Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes
- After the close: Nucor, the steelmaker, reports
From the trade log
The public log shows 474 wins, 17 losses and 4 breakeven across 495 closed alerts, a 95.8% win rate, as of 26 October 2026. See every closed alert on the public log →
Until the bell,
Christopher
Editor, PrimeFlow Trades
PrimeFlow Trades publishes market commentary and trade alerts for education. Nothing here is personal investment advice. Trading stocks involves risk, including the loss of money. Past results, including those on our public trade log, do not guarantee future results.
