Daily Brief · July 14
SPY slips 0.77% overnight ahead of high-impact CPI at 8:30 and Fed Chair Warsh testimony at 10:00.
Overnight Tone
Futures entered Tuesday's session under modest pressure as SPY settled at 749.17 against a prior close of 754.95, a decline of 5.78 points or approximately 0.77%. VIX edged higher to 17.32 from 17.16, signaling a slight uptick in near-term hedging demand ahead of this morning's inflation data. European participation is partially reduced due to the French bank holiday, limiting overnight liquidity in euro-denominated markets.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY is printing 749.17, down 0.77% from Monday's close of 754.95. VIX at 17.32 remains within a contained range but the directional tick higher alongside the equity decline suggests participants are adding modest protection ahead of the 8:30 CPI release. A VIX in the mid-17s does not indicate elevated fear, but it does reflect awareness of binary risk around today's dual high-impact catalysts.
Calendar Watch
Core CPI m/m (forecast 0.2%, prior 0.2%) at 8:30 ET; CPI m/m (forecast -0.1%, prior 0.5%) at 8:30 ET; Core CPI y/y (forecast 2.8%, prior 2.9%) at 8:30 ET; CPI y/y (forecast 3.8%, prior 4.2%) at 8:30 ET; Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies at 10:00 ET.
Read for the Open
The 8:30 CPI print is the dominant event for the first 30 minutes. Consensus expects headline CPI y/y to decelerate from 4.2% to 3.8% and core y/y to ease from 2.9% to 2.8%. Any deviation from those forecasts, particularly on the upside, may reprice rate expectations rapidly. Warsh's 10:00 testimony adds a second volatility window; options traders should be aware that implied moves may compress or expand sharply between those two events.
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