Daily Brief · July 31
SPY gaps to 741.69 on a +1.68% overnight surge as VIX slips to 16.79 ahead of ECI and UoM data.
Overnight Tone
Futures carried Thursday's momentum into Friday's open, with SPY printing 741.69 against a prior close of 729.46, a gain of approximately 1.68%. The BOJ held its policy rate below 1.00% and its press conference concluded without hawkish surprises, supporting risk appetite in Asia. European sessions absorbed a Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate of 2.9% y/y versus a 2.8% prior, a modest uptick that did not materially disrupt cross-asset flows into the U.S. open.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY is indicated at 741.69, up 12.23 points or roughly +1.68% from Thursday's close of 729.46. VIX has eased to 16.79 from 17.09, a decline of 0.30 points, suggesting the options market is pricing modestly lower near-term uncertainty heading into today's data. A VIX in the mid-16s is consistent with a contained implied volatility environment, though end-of-month positioning and intraday prints can shift that quickly.
Calendar Watch
08:30 ET Employment Cost Index q/q (forecast 0.8%, prior 0.9%); 10:00 ET Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (forecast 53.9, prior 54.4); 10:00 ET Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (prior 4.2%).
Read for the Open
The first 30 minutes will be shaped by whether the gap at 741.69 holds or invites profit-taking after a +1.68% overnight move. The 08:30 ET Employment Cost Index is the first hard data point; a reading above the 0.8% forecast could reintroduce wage-inflation concerns given the FOMC held at 3.75% on Wednesday. Watch bid-ask spreads on near-dated SPY options in the opening minutes, as end-of-month expiration dynamics can amplify early moves.
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