Daily Brief · August 11
SPY opens fractionally lower at 773.03 as VIX holds near 15.51 ahead of tomorrow's CPI print.
Overnight Tone
Futures entered Tuesday's session with minimal directional conviction. The RBA held its Cash Rate at 4.35% as expected, with the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement and press conference drawing attention from AUD-sensitive desks. Asia offered no major catalyst, and European flows have been orderly, leaving U.S. index futures to consolidate near Monday's close without a clear overnight driver.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY last printed 773.03 against a prior close of 773.26, a decline of approximately 0.03%, which is statistically negligible and implies a flat, wait-and-see posture at the open. VIX edged up marginally from 15.46 to 15.51, remaining in a low-volatility regime that historically compresses near-term option premiums. Neither reading suggests elevated directional urgency heading into the session.
Calendar Watch
Today (Aug 11): No top-tier USD High or Medium impact prints scheduled. Tomorrow (Aug 12): Core CPI m/m (forecast 0.2%, prior 0.0%), Core CPI y/y (forecast 2.5%, prior 2.6%), CPI m/m (forecast 0.1%, prior -0.4%), CPI y/y (forecast 3.4%, prior 3.5%) — all at 08:30 ET.
Read for the Open
With no top-tier domestic catalysts on today's schedule, the first 30 minutes will likely reflect positioning adjustments ahead of Wednesday's CPI cluster. Watch whether SPY holds the 773 level on any early volume, and monitor VIX for any drift above 16 that could signal traders hedging into the inflation print. Thin macro flow days can amplify individual name moves disproportionately.
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