Daily Brief · August 12
CPI morning: SPY slipped 0.32% overnight as VIX ticks to 15.41 ahead of the most-watched inflation print of the month.
Overnight Tone
Equity futures drifted lower into the CPI release, with SPY settling at 770.56 against a prior close of 773.03, a decline of roughly 0.32%. VIX edged up from 15.28 to 15.41, reflecting modest hedging demand ahead of the 8:30 AM print rather than any acute fear. Asia and Europe offered little directional conviction, leaving the tape in a holding pattern pending the U.S. data.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY is quoted at 770.56, down 2.47 points or approximately 0.32% from the prior close of 773.03. VIX at 15.41 remains in a low-volatility regime historically, but the marginal uptick from 15.28 signals that options markets are pricing a modest event premium around today's CPI. Positioning ahead of the number warrants awareness of potential gap risk at the open.
Calendar Watch
08:30 ET — Core CPI m/m (forecast 0.2%, prior 0.0%), Core CPI y/y (forecast 2.5%, prior 2.6%), CPI m/m (forecast 0.1%, prior -0.4%), CPI y/y (forecast 3.4%, prior 3.5%).
Read for the Open
The 8:30 AM CPI cluster is the sole high-impact event today and will dominate the first 30 minutes of trade. Watch the spread between the headline CPI y/y print versus the 3.4% consensus and the Core m/m versus the 0.2% forecast; deviations in either direction historically produce outsized intraday moves in SPY and rate-sensitive sectors. Allow the initial 5-to-10-minute reaction to settle before drawing conclusions about direction.
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