Daily Brief · August 26
Core PCE and Prelim GDP hit the tape at 8:30 ET with VIX holding 15.69 — a data-heavy open awaits.
Overnight Tone
SPY closed Tuesday at 763.47 and is indicated at 765.91 heading into Wednesday's open, a gain of roughly 0.32%. VIX edged up from 15.45 to 15.69, a modest uptick that reflects measured caution ahead of this morning's simultaneous Core PCE and Prelim GDP prints. Overnight Asia and European sessions offered no outsized dislocations to alter that posture.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY is tracking +0.32% from Tuesday's close of 763.47 to a current indicated 765.91. VIX at 15.69 sits in a regime that options desks generally associate with orderly two-sided flow rather than defensive hedging pressure. That reading can shift quickly if the 8:30 ET data package surprises materially in either direction.
Calendar Watch
Core PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.2%, prior 0.1%) at 8:30 ET; Prelim GDP q/q (forecast 1.5%, prior 1.5%) at 8:30 ET; Prelim GDP Price Index q/q (forecast 6.2%, prior 6.2%) at 8:30 ET.
Read for the Open
The 8:30 ET window delivers Core PCE, Prelim GDP, and the GDP Price Index simultaneously — a combination that can produce sharp repricing in rate-sensitive instruments within the first minutes of the print. Watch how SPY absorbs the initial reaction around the 765.91 reference level before drawing conclusions about intraday range. FOMC Member Barkin speaks at 11:45 ET and may add nuance to any morning move.
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