Daily Brief · September 1
SPY slips 0.30% overnight as VIX ticks to 15.78; ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS hit at 10:00 AM ET.
Overnight Tone
Equity futures opened the September session on a cautious footing, with SPY pulling back from Monday's close of 769.35 to 767.05. The VIX edged higher by 0.86 points to 15.78, signaling a modest uptick in near-term hedging demand. European manufacturing PMI prints came in largely in line with consensus, offering no material catalyst to shift overnight sentiment in either direction.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY is indicated at 767.05, a decline of 2.30 points or approximately -0.30% from the prior close of 769.35. The VIX at 15.78 remains within a low-to-moderate volatility regime historically, though the single-session rise of 0.86 points warrants attention heading into a data-heavy morning. Options premiums may reflect slightly elevated demand for near-term downside protection relative to yesterday's close.
Calendar Watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 55.2, prior 55.6) at 10:00 AM ET; ISM Manufacturing Prices (forecast 70.5, prior 71.1) at 10:00 AM ET; JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 7.33M, prior 7.36M) at 10:00 AM ET; FOMC Member Barr speaks at 9:05 AM ET.
Read for the Open
The first 30 minutes will be shaped by positioning ahead of the 10:00 AM ET triple release of ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Prices, and JOLTS. With ISM Manufacturing forecast at 55.2 versus a prior 55.6, any meaningful deviation from consensus could reprice rate-path expectations and move index implied volatility. FOMC Member Barr's 9:05 AM appearance adds an additional early-session variable worth monitoring for tone on policy.
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