August PCE inflation held at 3.4% year over year, but consumer spending picked up sharply. That combination helped stocks Wednesday morning while Treasury yields told a more complicated story ahead of Friday’s jobs report.
August PCE inflation: steady annual rate, stronger spending
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index rose 0.3% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.0% year over year. Nominal consumer spending climbed 0.9%; adjusted for prices, real spending rose 0.6%. Personal income increased 0.2%, while real disposable income was flat.
BEA’s annual update revised July’s figures: July’s annual PCE inflation rate is now also 3.4%, while its monthly rate is 0.1%. August’s monthly 0.3% rate was faster. The annual reading was below many forecasts, but it did not decline from revised July. Faster spending can keep attention on growth, oil and longer-term yields. One report does not settle the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Before the next report, it helps to know which prices and times deserve your attention. The 40 Minutes That Matter video workshop maps the trading day, including the price levels to mark before and after the opening bell and the windows when a move may have more room to develop. It is currently $7 for one payment, down from $49.
Why stocks and bonds reacted differently
In an Associated Press snapshot updated at 11:23 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 was up about 0.5%, the Nasdaq 0.9% and the Dow 0.1% around 11 a.m. The two-year Treasury yield had eased to 4.86% from 4.89% Tuesday. The 10-year, after briefly touching 5.20%, was around 5.27%, slightly above Tuesday’s late 5.26% level. These were intraday readings, not closing prices.
The short end welcomed the inflation report; the long end did not sustain its early relief. Watch whether yields and market breadth confirm the equity move. A headline-driven opening surge that cannot hold a retest deserves a different response from a move that gains participation.
A completed PrimeFlow trade, with dates attached
The PrimeFlow public trade log had no newly posted close after September 28 when this article was prepared. Its latest recorded winner, GENI, was entered September 22 at $5.91 and exited September 28 at $6.14, a documented +3.89% stock move.
For historical context, the log also records MTRN entered July 31 at $214.12 and closed August 7 at $291.15, a documented +35.98% stock move. That is an earlier result, not a current position or typical outcome. Neither stock move is an account return or a result of the workshop. Past results do not predict future results.
Friday’s employment report is the next test
The Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar schedules the September employment report for Friday, October 2, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The number will matter, but so will the response in Treasury yields and the ability of stocks to hold their first move.
Mark relevant levels before the release, watch which part of the session you are in, and decide what would invalidate the first reaction. The 40 Minutes That Matter workshop shows the day’s price map and market clock, with a video lesson and two printable one-page guides: The Session Clock and The Level Map. The listed $49 price is reduced by $42 to $7 one-time (86% off), with lifetime access. See what the $7 workshop covers before Friday’s report. All workshop sales are final; an optional Sanctum membership add-on at checkout is separate and renews if selected.
Market data above are time-stamped intraday observations. This article is educational research, not individualized investment advice. Stocks and options involve substantial risk, including loss of principal. Past results do not guarantee future results.
