Daily Brief · June 25
Core PCE and final GDP hit the tape at 8:30 ET as VIX eases to 17.95 — a data-heavy open with vol compressing into the print.
Overnight Tone
Equity futures entered Thursday's session with a muted overnight bid following Wednesday's close. VIX pulled back from 18.63 to 17.95, a decline of 0.68 points, suggesting options markets are pricing modestly less near-term uncertainty ahead of this morning's data cluster. European and Asian sessions offered no major dislocations, leaving the tape largely in a holding pattern ahead of the 8:30 ET releases.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY last printed 733.24 against a prior close of 733.58, a change of -0.05%, indicating a fractionally softer overnight session. At that level, price action is essentially flat, which is consistent with a market awaiting directional input from high-impact data. VIX at 17.95 remains in a range that historically reflects moderate implied volatility — not complacent, not elevated.
Calendar Watch
Core PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%), Final GDP q/q (forecast 1.6%, prior 1.6%), Final GDP Price Index q/q (forecast 3.5%, prior 3.5%), Unemployment Claims (forecast 225K, prior 226K) — all at 8:30 ET. FOMC Member Williams speaks at 3:40 PM ET; FOMC Member Goolsbee speaks at 6:30 PM ET.
Read for the Open
The 8:30 ET window is the critical interval. Core PCE at a forecast of 0.3% m/m — one tick above last month's 0.2% — carries the most weight for rate-path interpretation. Final GDP is expected to confirm the prior 1.6% read with no revision. Watch how the options market reprices implied volatility in SPY and rate-sensitive sectors in the first 30 minutes following the data release.
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