Daily Brief · July 15
PPI and a second Warsh testimony headline Wednesday as SPY holds above 751 with VIX easing to 16.38.
Overnight Tone
Tuesday's CPI print — headline at -0.1% m/m versus a 0.5% prior and y/y at 3.8% versus 4.2% prior — carried constructive momentum into the overnight session. Asia digested the data without notable dislocation, and European futures opened steadily. VIX slipped from 16.50 to 16.38, suggesting the options market absorbed Tuesday's inflation data without repricing tail risk materially higher.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY last printed 751.83 against a prior close of 749.17, a gain of approximately 0.35%. That modest advance keeps the tape in a constructive posture but does not represent a breakout-magnitude move. With VIX at 16.38, near-term implied volatility remains contained, which compresses premium on short-dated options and warrants attention to gamma positioning around today's data windows.
Calendar Watch
08:30 ET: Core PPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.4%), PPI m/m (forecast 0.0%, prior 1.1%); 10:00 ET: Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies (second day); BOC Rate Statement and Overnight Rate decision (forecast 2.25%, prior 2.25%) at 09:45 ET with press conference at 10:45 ET.
Read for the Open
The 08:30 PPI release lands before the open and follows directly on Tuesday's softer CPI, making the producer-side read particularly relevant for gauging pipeline inflation. Warsh's second day of testimony at 10:00 ET may revisit rate-path language that moved markets Tuesday. Watch SPY's initial reaction to PPI in the first fifteen minutes before drawing conclusions about session direction.
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