Daily Brief · July 24
SPY opens Friday down 1.23% from Thursday's close as VIX edges higher; Flash PMI prints land before the bell.
Overnight Tone
Overnight price action reflects a risk-off lean heading into Friday's session, with SPY futures carrying Thursday's 9.23-point decline into the open. European Flash PMI data for France, Germany, and the eurozone printed across the wire in early morning hours, providing cross-asset context. VIX moved modestly from 18.70 to 18.84, a contained but directionally higher read that keeps near-term hedging cost slightly elevated without signaling acute stress.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY last printed 738.18 against a prior close of 747.41, a decline of approximately 1.23%. VIX at 18.84 sits above Thursday's close of 18.70, a marginal uptick that suggests the options market is not aggressively repricing tail risk but is not dismissing the equity pullback either. Traders monitoring gamma exposure near round-number strikes should note the magnitude of the overnight gap relative to recent session ranges.
Calendar Watch
Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD, 9:45 AM ET, forecast 54.4, prior 55.7), Flash Services PMI (USD, 9:45 AM ET, forecast 51.3, prior 51.3), New Home Sales (USD, 10:00 AM ET, forecast 609K, prior 580K).
Read for the Open
The first 30 minutes will be shaped by how the market absorbs the overnight gap alongside the 9:45 AM Flash PMI prints, where Manufacturing is forecast to slip from 55.7 to 54.4. A miss on Services PMI, currently forecast flat at 51.3, could extend the risk-off tone. Watch bid-ask spreads on near-dated SPY options in the opening minutes, as liquidity can thin meaningfully when price gaps into a new range.
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