Daily Brief · August 3
SPY opens with a 0.72% gap higher as ISM Manufacturing hits the tape at 10:00 ET with VIX pinned near 15.95.
Overnight Tone
Futures carried a constructive bid into the Monday open, with SPY last printing 747.03 against Friday's close of 741.69. European manufacturing PMIs came in broadly in line with forecasts across Germany, France, and the eurozone, offering no meaningful disruption to overnight positioning. VIX settled fractionally lower at 15.95 versus Friday's 15.99, suggesting the options market is not pricing incremental event risk into today's session.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY is indicated up approximately 0.72% from Friday's close of 741.69, with the last print at 747.03. A move of that magnitude on a Monday open typically reflects weekend positioning unwind or macro follow-through rather than a single catalyst. VIX at 15.95 remains in a low-volatility regime, which compresses near-term options premiums and warrants attention for traders managing debit structures.
Calendar Watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 ET, forecast 54.0, prior 53.3), ISM Manufacturing Prices (10:00 ET, forecast 70.0, prior 73.0).
Read for the Open
The first 30 minutes will establish whether the overnight gap holds or fades into the 10:00 ET ISM print. ISM Manufacturing is the sole high-impact domestic release today, with the prices sub-index also worth monitoring given its read-through to inflation expectations. Participants should note that Canada observes a bank holiday today, which may reduce CAD-correlated flow and thin certain cross-asset hedges.
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