Daily Brief · August 5
SPY gaps +1.80% to 771.33 as VIX holds near 16.52; ADP, ISM Services, and a Trump speech headline Wednesday's tape.
Overnight Tone
Equity futures carried overnight strength into Wednesday's pre-market, with SPY printing 771.33 against a prior close of 757.67, a gain of roughly 1.80%. European services PMI readings came in largely in line with prior prints, offering no meaningful drag. VIX edged fractionally higher to 16.52 from 16.50, signaling that options markets are not pricing elevated fear despite the sharp overnight gap.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY is indicated at 771.33, up 13.66 points or approximately 1.80% from Tuesday's close of 757.67. A gap of this magnitude places short-dated gamma exposure under pressure at nearby strikes. VIX at 16.52 remains in a subdued regime historically, though a gap open of this size warrants attention to how implied volatility behaves in the first 30 minutes of regular trading.
Calendar Watch
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (8:15 AM ET, forecast 68K, prior 98K), ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET, forecast 54.5, prior 54.0), President Trump Speaks (4:30 PM ET, medium impact), FOMC Member Cook Speaks (4:05 PM ET).
Read for the Open
The 8:15 AM ADP print arrives before the open and carries added weight this week as a directional signal ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls, where consensus sits at 85K. A significant miss or beat relative to the 68K forecast could reprice rate-cut expectations and affect near-term implied volatility. ISM Services at 10:00 AM is the second key input; the prior read was 54.0 and consensus expects 54.5.
Educational content only. Trade your plan.
Members read it at 7:00 am ET on August 5, 2026 - before the session it describes. Three written briefs every market day, plus stock and options alerts with entry, stop and targets stated up front.
See membership options