Daily Brief · August 13
PPI and claims hit at 8:30 ET with VIX near 14.6 and SPY up 0.25% overnight — a data-heavy open awaits.
Overnight Tone
Futures entered Thursday's session with a constructive lean following Wednesday's CPI print, which showed headline CPI y/y at 3.4% against a 3.5% prior and core CPI y/y at 2.5% versus 2.6% prior. European equities traded quietly ahead of UK GDP data. VIX settled at 14.6, up marginally from 14.55, signaling no meaningful elevation in near-term hedging demand heading into today's PPI release.
Pre-Market Levels
SPY is indicated at 772.49 against a prior close of 770.56, a gain of approximately 0.25%. That modest overnight bid reflects residual CPI relief but remains well within recent range. VIX at 14.6 suggests the options market is not pricing a significant volatility expansion around today's PPI and claims data, though intraday swings around the 8:30 ET print are common.
Calendar Watch
Core PPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%), PPI m/m (forecast 0.2%, prior -0.3%), Unemployment Claims (forecast 202K, prior 199K) — all at 8:30 ET; FOMC Member Hammack speaks at 8:15 ET; FOMC Member Barkin speaks at 8:40 ET.
Read for the Open
The 8:30 ET window is dense: PPI, core PPI, and claims print simultaneously, followed almost immediately by Barkin at 8:40. Watch for any divergence between the PPI read and yesterday's softer CPI tone, as a hotter core PPI m/m above the 0.3% forecast could reprice near-term rate expectations. The first 30 minutes will likely reflect how the market reconciles both inflation prints together.
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