Daily Brief · November 9
SPY closed Friday at 735.29 as VIX dropped to 23.37; volatility compression and a modest equity gain set the table for Monday.
Overnight Tone
SPY closed Friday's session at 735.29, a gain of 2.29 points — roughly 0.31% — from Thursday's close of 733.00. VIX finished at 23.37, down from the prior close of 25.64, a meaningful single-session compression of 2.27 points. That decline in implied volatility alongside a positive equity close suggests sellers of premium had the better of Friday's tape.
Pre-Market Levels
Friday's close of 735.29 on SPY is the reference level heading into Monday's open. With VIX at 23.37, implied volatility remains elevated relative to long-run averages, which keeps options pricing firm across near-term expirations. Traders should be aware that a VIX in the low-to-mid 20s can produce intraday swings that exceed what recent realized volatility might suggest.
Calendar Watch
Today (Nov 9): FOMC Member Bowman speaks at 8:40 AM ET, FOMC Member Goolsbee speaks at 10:00 AM ET, FOMC Member Barkin speaks at 12:15 PM ET, BOE Governor Bailey speaks at 12:25 PM ET (Medium impact). Tomorrow (Nov 10): Core CPI m/m at 8:30 AM ET (High, forecast 0.2%, prior 0.3%), CPI m/m at 8:30 AM ET (High, forecast 0.3%, prior 0.6%), FOMC Member Waller speaks at 4:00 AM ET (Medium).
Read for the Open
With no high-impact domestic data scheduled for today, the first 30 minutes will likely be shaped by order flow positioning ahead of Tuesday's CPI print. Three FOMC members speak today — Bowman, Goolsbee, and Barkin — and any commentary touching the rate path could move short-duration options. Watch how implied volatility in SPY's Tuesday expiration behaves relative to Friday's VIX close of 23.37 as the session develops.
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