Daily Brief · November 10
SPY surged 2.36% Monday to 752.69 as VIX holds at 20.08 — CPI prints at 8:30 AM ET today.
Overnight Tone
Monday's session delivered a notable move: SPY closed at 752.69, up 17.40 points or approximately 2.37% from Friday's close of 735.29. That is a meaningful single-session advance. VIX edged marginally higher, settling at 20.08 versus a prior close of 19.92, suggesting the options market has not fully released caution despite the equity rally.
Pre-Market Levels
Monday's closing print of 752.69 on SPY serves as the primary reference level heading into Tuesday's open. With VIX at 20.08, implied volatility remains in a zone that warrants measured positioning — not elevated enough to signal acute stress, but above the low-teens complacency threshold. Traders should treat Monday's close as the anchor, not a guaranteed floor.
Calendar Watch
Core CPI m/m (forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%) at 8:30 AM ET; CPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, previous 0.6%) at 8:30 AM ET; FOMC Member Waller speaks at 4:00 AM ET (Medium impact).
Read for the Open
The 8:30 AM ET CPI release is the dominant event for the first 30 minutes. Core CPI is forecast at 0.2% month-over-month against a prior 0.3%, while headline CPI is expected at 0.3% versus a prior 0.6%. A material deviation in either direction from consensus could reprice rate expectations rapidly. Watch bid-ask spreads widen into the print and stabilize only after the initial absorption period.
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