The PrimeFlow Desk · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · Market Brief
The September PCE price index and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP both land at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, one day after a split Fed held rates. Before the bell, Alphabet was down about 11% and Microsoft up about 1.5% after their results, pulling Nasdaq futures down about 1%.
Where the market closed on Wednesday, October 28, 2026
- S&P 500: 7,743.98, up 0.28% (21 points)
- Dow: 52,475.10, up 0.19% (98 points)
- Nasdaq: 26,549.85, up 0.27% (72 points)
- 10-year Treasury yield: 5.05%, up 0.06 point
- Brent crude oil (December): $115.32 a barrel, up 1.26%
- Gold: $4,051.60 an ounce, down 0.56%
PCE and GDP: inflation gets its turn after the Fed
Last night I said the two dissents were the real news at the Fed. At 8:30 this morning, we find out whether the numbers back them up.
The Commerce Department releases two reports at once. The first is September’s PCE price index, the inflation measure the Fed leans on most. Forecasters expect prices up 3.6% from a year earlier, from 3.4% in August, and 3.1% once food and energy are set aside.
The second is the first estimate of third-quarter growth. The forecast is a 3.2% annual pace, up from 2.2% in the spring quarter.
My view: fast growth plus rising prices is the exact mix that moves the Fed toward a December hike. If both numbers beat their forecasts, I’d expect the 10-year yield to push higher and the big tech names to feel it first. Higher rates also raise the cost of borrowing to trade, which is why our guide to intraday margin is worth a read this week.
What it means for you
If you’re waiting on lower rates before you refinance or buy a car, this report decides how long you wait. Hot numbers make the wait longer.
With two big reports landing an hour before the open, the first hour is where this morning gets decided. The 40 Minutes That Matter is what our desk teaches every new trader first: a workshop and two one-page cheat sheets, The Level Map and The Session Clock. It normally sells for $49. You can have it for one payment of $7.
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Also on the Desk
Alphabet’s slide comes from one line. An $8.7 billion hit on its investment stakes dragged profit well below forecasts.
Microsoft’s lift comes from the cloud. Its Azure cloud business grew 48% last quarter.
Amazon reports after the close tonight. After Alphabet’s slide, its cloud numbers carry extra weight.
Economic calendar for Thursday, October 29, 2026 (Eastern time)
- 8:30 AM: the PCE price index for September and the first read on third-quarter GDP
- 8:30 AM: weekly jobless claims
- 9:15 AM: the European Central Bank’s rate decision
- After the close: Amazon’s results
From the trade log
As of 28 October 2026, the public log stands at 506 closed alerts: 485 wins, 17 losses and 4 breakeven. That’s a 95.8% win rate. See every closed alert, wins and losses, on the log →
Be ready before the bell,
Christopher
Editor, PrimeFlow Trades
PrimeFlow Trades publishes market commentary and trade alerts for education. Nothing here is personal investment advice. Trading stocks involves risk, including the loss of money. Past results, including those on our public trade log, do not guarantee future results.
